Geological Survey Ireland has been monitoring flood levels at Lough Funshinagh, Co Roscommon since 2016. Recent work commissioned by the Geological survey has focused on analysing possible future flood behaviours at the Lough. This work was carried out by consultants MKO Ireland based on models previously developed by South-East Technological University (SETU).
Current Levels
Lough Funshinagh has been rising steadily since September 2023 and as of early March 2024, the Lough has reached record high flood levels of 69.03 meters above sea level.
Water levels at Lough Funshinagh, Co. Roscommon 2016-2024.
Potential Future Levels
The potential future flood behaviour at Lough Funshinagh has been estimated by assessing historic rainfall trends. It should be noted that this assessment is not a forecast. Instead, it is an assessment of historic rainfall trends and how Funshinagh would respond to them based on its current water level. Sequences of historic Met Eireann data was inputted into a hydrological model of the Lough and used to produce a statistical analysis of how flood patterns may evolve in the Lough over the next eighteen months. The technique assumes that rainfall tends over the next eighteen months will be broadly similar to rainfall trends from the last 30 years. The assessment indicates the following:
In 2024 there is a:
- 95 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 69.09 m (6 cm above the current level).
- 50 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 69.15 m (12 cm above the current level).
- 5 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 69.35 m (32 cm above the current level).
In 2025 there is a:
- 95 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 68.15m (88 cm below the current level).
- 50 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 69m (3 cm below the current level)
- 5 % probability that water levels will reach approx. 70m (97 cm above the current level)
It should be noted that work on the Lough Funshinagh model is ongoing. Results are subject to change and should be interpreted with caution.
Potential future water levels at Lough Funshinagh, Co. Roscommon up until August 2025. Estimated water levels were calculated by consultants MKO Ireland based on models developed by South-East Technological University (SETU).